Thursday, February 1, 2024

NFC Championship Game

 49ers 34, Detroit 31


There haven't been a whole lot of big 49er comebacks in their storied playoff history. Usually, and especially of late, they get ahead and stay there, or they win a pitched battle from start to finish.  Yes, they overcame a 17-0 first-quarter lead to beat the Falcons in Atlanta in the 2012 NFC Championship, but that comeback began in the second quarter and by halftime it was a game again.  No, this back-from-the-dead 27-point second-half eruption is truly unprecedented. The only other 49er playoff game it truly resembles is the 1957 NFL Western Conference playoff, in which the Niners memorably blew a 24-7 halftime lead and lost, 31-27... to the Detroit Lions. What goes around, comes around, even after 66 years. 

Whew! Well, it was both exhilarating and a great relief. Seeing this team "roar back" with 17 quick third-quarter points to tie a game that seemed all but lost, then take full control of game and clock in a punishing fourth quarter that ended in delirious celebration, is tempered by the memory of those first 30 minutes, when the Lions pushed the 49ers around all over the field with their breakaway running game and a run-stuffing defense, enough so that at halftime it seemed almost a blessing that it was "only" 24-7. But after all, it is how you finish, not how you start, that matters.

And so the San Francisco 49ers head off to Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas, their eighth 'Bowl, with a chance to tie New England and Pittsburgh with a record sixth Lombardi. They got there by keeping their poise against a tough young team that beat them up early, and if there's a reigning champion of poise, it is quarterback Brock Purdy. Yes, "Mister Irrelevant" has led his team to the Super Bowl,  overcoming the skeptics, his own mistakes, and two tough defenses, not to mention two first-round QBs including a Number One pick.  

The play that turned this game around came at 5:17 of the third quarter with the Lions leading 24-17. Jahmyr Gibbs, the rookie from Alabama who had already scored one touchdown and set up another with his elusive running, fumbled the handoff from Jared Goff. Arik Armstead recovered the loose ball at the Detroit 24, and the game belonged to the 49ers from that point on.  

A minute later, on second-and 11, Purdy scrambled away from the pressing defense, then ducked, dodged, and dived his way 21 yards down the field to the Lion 4. Two plays later Christian McCaffrey was in the end zone with his second touchdown, and despite the 24-24 score it was clear who was in charge of this game. 

The defense immediately responded, holding Detroit to its first three-and-out, and Purdy then led a 7-minute drive down to the Lions 13, already well into the fourth quarter. Detroit's only two sacks of the game stopped the drive and Jake Moody atoned for an earlier missed kick by nailing a 33-yarder for San Francisco's first lead.

Much has been made of Lions coach Dan Campbell's aggressive go-for-it strategy, and how two second-half fourth-down attempts, both in 49er territory, failed and ultimately resulted in 49er touchdowns. But that is a big part of what got the Lions to this game in the first place, and Campbell can hardly be faulted for staying with it.

Having reached the 49er 30 halfway through the final period, Goff, who had a fine game himself, was forced to run for his life and throw the ball away on fourth down thanks to relentless pressure from Nick Bosa and Chase Young. Turnover on downs. The Lions chose to die on that hill, and they did. 

Taking over on their own 30, the 49ers put the game away with two big, spectacular runs. First it was Purdy, another 21-yard dash through the open middle of the field on third-and-4. Then McCaffrey barreled his way down the right sideline to the three-yard-line, shedding defenders as he went and finally landing hard on his head out of bounds. He retired for the day, and in came Elijah Mitchell. He promptly scored the touchdown that made it 34-24 with three minutes to play, and Detroit was left with a long and costly 75-yard drive, Goff completing seven straight short passes at one point.  Costly, because Campbell made his one genuine blunder by calling a run at the 49er 3 that was stuffed and cost his team a precious timeout with 56 seconds left.  

Detroit scored, on Goff's first touchdown pass of the day, but the Lions never got the ball back. Purdy, taking the final kneeldown, leaped for joy as the clock ran out, holding on to the game ball as the exhausted but exhilarated crowd gave him a standing ovation. 

Bright moment: Brandon Aiyuk's spectacular 51-yard "ladybug catch" at the Detroit six-yard line. A perfectly-thrown and -led deep pass from Purdy looked to be intended for defender Kildon Vidor, primarily because he had interfered with Aiyuk at the 20. As the penalty flag flew, Vidor leaped for and tipped the ball, which ricocheted off his facemask as he fell. Aiyuk, following, managed to keep his balance and to catch the ball, and was barely touched before he tumbled to the turf, then bounced up and into the end zone. For the first time in memory,  the officials didn't even bother to consider whether the interference call would be refused-- they just announced that they'd picked up the flag. Two plays later Aiyuk got his touchdown catch on a perfect Purdy pass. After the game he credited his success, and the circus-style play, to a good-luck ladybug he'd spotted crawling on his shoe. This young man has a future in the entertainment business. 

The stat line shows this game was about as even as it could be, with similar totals in first downs, passing yards, rushing yards, sacks, turnovers, and third down conversions. There were only five total penalties, none of them significant (thankfully, Aiyuk's catch saw to that). Looking closely, we're reminded that when turnovers happen is just as significant as whether they happen. And looking closer, we're reminded of Bill Walsh's adage that a successful running game in the fourth quarter is key to winning in the NFL. Fourth-quarter rushing yards: San Francisco 76, Detroit 14.  

And, of course, waiting on the other side of the ball in Vegas will be the Kansas City Chiefs, who thoroughly outplayed the snakebit Baltimore Ravens for the AFC title. Yes, it's a rematch, Kyle Shanahan's team against Andy Reid's, and given the way this postseason has gone for the 49ers so far, it's likely to be a thriller.   



NFC divisional playoff 

49ers 24, Green Bay 21


Few, we trust, were surprised with the way Brock Purdy kept his composure, picked up his team, and "game-managed" a brilliant second-half comeback Sunday.  Those who were evidently were absent the previous Saturday when he led the first fourth-quarter last-minute do-or-die comeback of his young career. Struggling with his accuracy, and with the Green Bay Packers' surprising defense, and with a steady winter rain, and without Deebo Samuel, who left early with a bad shoulder, Purdy had endured a desultory first half and his team was in the game only because of its stout defense.

Trailing 21-17 with just over six minutes to play, facing another hungry young team on a roll through the playoffs, Purdy took over the game. He calmly and confidently completed six of seven passes as the 49ers marched 70 yards in five and a half minutes to the winning touchdown. The play of the game was Purdy's heads-up nine-yard scramble down to the Packers 6 on second-and-11 with barely a minute left. The play seemed to take forever-- in point of fact it ate up 44 precious seconds-- as Purdy weaved left, then right, looking for receivers, then broke out of the backfield into the open and angled down toward the left pylon, staying in bounds after he was hit. 

McCaffrey scored on the next play and Green Bay's last-minute comeback attempt was snuffed out by Dre Greenlaw's interception of Jordan Love who, like Purdy, is completing his first full year as a NFL starting quarterback and looking good at it. 

It's startling to realize that Green Bay, with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, was the NFC's top playoff seed just two years ago. This is a completely different and much younger Packer team, and they're back in the hunt after missing the playoffs for just one season.

 Another reason for the 49ers to spend it all now-- the competition is closing in.      


    

Thursday, January 11, 2024

Week Eighteen

 Los Angeles 21, San Francisco 20

Forty-one years ago almost to the day, the 1982 49ers' season ended with a 21-20 loss at home to the Los Angeles Rams, a game decided by a blocked extra point.

Perhaps Jake Moody, who missed the extra point that decided the game Sunday, and also missed a field goal, can take solace that Ray Wersching, the 49er kicker back in '82, played on two Super Bowl champions.

So the Rams, who finished the season 7-1, earned a 10-win campaign and a date at Detroit, not Dallas, this coming weekend. The Goffs and the Staffords face off at 8:20 PM on Sunday night.

They were pretty good with Carson Wentz at quarterback, a little better than were the 49ers with Sam Darnold. Both gave creditable auditions for "bridge QB" jobs next year in places like Washington, Las Vegas, New England, and possibly Denver.   Wentz led the Rams from a 20-7 deficit to a fourth-quarter rally and win. Darnold made two good passes downfield trying to upstage him in the final seconds and give Moody a shot at redemption, but the game ended on a sack and fumble. 

Of the 49ers' four possible playoff opponents next weekend, Philadelphia seems the most likely; we expect the Igs to snap out of their tailspin and beat Tampa on Monday night. Next likely would be the Rams, who we figure are even-steven in Detroit. The Bucs are a little less likely, and we give Green Bay no chance at Dallas. It's rather impressive the Packers made it at all.

Who would have considered the two winningest coaches in America, Nick Saban and Bill Belichick, both would step down (or be ushered down) within the same week? No less than eight NFL teams will be looking for new coaches, and among the fired we believe Mike Vrabel and Ron Rivera likeliest to find quick employment.  Of the available jobs, Atlanta and the LA Chargers seem to offer the best chance for a quick turnaround, though the respective owners of those teams are a mile apart in reputation.  

And we trust everyone else is as appalled as we are that the NFL has decided, for the first time, to charge money to watch a single NFL game-- the playoff between Miami and Kansas City on Saturday night, available only on NBC's "Peacock" subscription streaming channel. At least they're obliged to carry the game over the air in the Miami and KC markets, for the hometown fans. The rest of us can apparently either pay up or suck eggs. We'll have ours Benedict with plenty of Tabasco.  



Thursday, January 4, 2024

Week Seventeen

 49ers 27, Washington 10


No turnovers.  A dominant fourth quarter. 184 rushing yards, most of them after halftime.  38 minutes of possession.  408 total yards against 225. In other words, pretty much what we expected the 49ers to do against a tough but undermanned opponent. And the purpose of the whole thing was quietly achieved: San Francisco clinched the top seed, home-field advantage, and the first-round bye for the first time since 2019, when they went to the Super Bowl and almost won it.

Leading only 13-10, the 49er defense opened the third quarter with three-and-out, followed by the offense launching a seven-minute touchdown drive that ended with Elijah Mitchell, not Christian McCaffrey, scoring the touchdown.  

The last play of the third quarter decided the game. Charvarius (doesn't that sound like a Pokemon character?) Ward made a perfect break to intercept Sam Howell's pass at the 49er goal line, and the Commanders would not threaten again. 

You will never see a quarterback execute a play better than Brock Purdy did on his escape, rollout, improv, field direction, and deep  touchdown pass to Brandon Aiyuk with 9:30 remaining. It capped a 95-yard (105 counting a needless holding penalty) drive after Ward's pickoff. Mitchell gained 28 of those yards as the team's lone running back after our MVP candidate was idled for the duration with a strained calf.  It was 27-10, Purdy had 224 passing yards at that point, and the Niners went run, run, run the rest of the way-- 36 total carries on the day, averaging five yards a pop.  

Now comes an essentially meaningless last-game showdown with the Rams, who also clinched a playoff spot Sunday, as we predicted they would in preseason. An LA win over the 49ers would ensure  them the sixth seed and a date against the Lions in Detroit-- Matthew Stafford against Jared Goff.  You know you want to see that one.

As for the 49ers, two full weeks of R&R for many, likely including Trent Williams as well as McCaffrey.  The first playoff game at Levi Stadium will be played on January 20 or 21.  Don't that sound nice? 

Wednesday, December 27, 2023

Week Sixteen

Baltimore 33, 49ers 19

Some takeaways from a good old-fashioned beating:

  • The 49ers' ability to come from behind late in the game is still unproven. They've not done it once since last year's overtime win in Las Vegas. While it's true the Niners' preference and tendency is to jump ahead early and put the screws to the opponent, this remains a troubling issue with the postseason just ahead.
  • With that in mind, does anyone else think the game really turned for the worse with only three minutes gone? Brock Purdy had led the 49ers right down the field, hitting medium and deep passes almost at will against a fine defense, only to see what should have been a touchdown pass picked off in the end zone. Had the 49ers scored there, does anyone think they'd have lost at all, or not by more than 3 in any case? His other interceptions were due to batted and tipped balls, but this one rests solely on our young QB, who made the throw a half-second too late on the game's signature play.
  • Despite three first-half interceptions, it was still only 16-12 at halftime, anybody's ballgame. Then came the worst stretch of 49er football we've seen since 2020, 17 points in six minutes as the Ravens took complete control and never let go. The final 20 minutes were cringe-worthy as offensive linemen, including the linchpin Trent Williams, limped off the field and Purdy looked genuinely flustered, later taking a scary hit that gave coach Shanahan the excuse he needed to sit him down for the duration. 
  • And don't overlook this: despite getting thoroughly pounded on the board, San Francisco outgained Baltimore in rushing (121-102), passing (308-241), total yards (429-343), and yards per play (6.3 to 5.4). The difference in the game was five interceptions. By that measure, Baltimore was clearly the better team, but much of it was because the 49ers beat themselves.
  • The AFC is clearly the superior conference, with a ten-game advantage over the NFC in interconference play. (The 49ers are 2-3 against the other conference, 9-1 in the NFC.)
  • Sam Darnold can play quarterback in this league. Nice to know, even if it was the last thing we wanted to find out from this game. 
  • The road to the NFC top seed is wide open as long as five turnovers don't remain on the menu. 



Tuesday, December 19, 2023

Week Fifteen

 49ers 45, Arizona 29

With half a dozen defensive regulars sitting out Sunday's game at Arizona due to various injuries, it was incumbent on the 49er offense to score often to avoid an avoidable upset by Kyler Murray and his merry band of Cardinals. 

And the 49er defense indeed looked, well, thin, and out of sorts, as Murray and his mates took the opening kickoff and marched 70 yards for a touchdown, Murray carrying much of the load and James Conner  scoring the points.   

But as they would throughout the game, the 49er offense answered back quickly. Brock Purdy, starting off a four-touchdown, zero-interception day with a 75-yard drive, generated 30 yards through the air and Christian McCaffrey accounted for the other 45. This is sounding very familiar, isn't it?

The defense, perhaps atoning for bad form earlier, then put up a spectacular score on Charvarius Ward's 66-yard return of an interception to complete the first quarter. The second period was a bit of a slog, each team punting once, the Cardinals scoring twice on field goals, and the 49ers reasserting control late in the quarter with a time-consuming drive to a McCaffrey touchdown and a 21-13 lead.

The 49ers scored their fourth TD to open the third quarter, and it slowly got out of hand in the second half as the 49ers rolled up and down the field, building leads of 35-16 and 45-22, and McCaffrey scored his 19th and 20th touchdowns of the season. The defense intercepted Murray twice more and sacked him three times, but consider this: the Cardinals put up 234 rushing yards, and 436 total yards, in a losing effort. That is not a number we want to see heading into the season's third Ultimate Showdown-- Christmas night at home against Baltimore, the only other 11-3 team in the league.

As well as officially clinching the division, the 49ers' Week 15 aftermath was bolstered by the Buffalo Bills' demolition of the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday and by last night's last-minute upset of the Philadelphia Eagles by our old friends, the Seattle Seahawks, who stubbornly remain in the playoff hunt.  

San Francisco now has a one-game lead and holds all the tiebreakers, but for all the giddy talk about a Super Bowl preview and rematch, it still comes down to winning each game. And that means we need the return of the great 49er defense, if we expect to see a scarlet-and-gold Christmas. 

Tuesday, December 12, 2023

Week Fourteen

 49ers 28, Seattle 16

The official word this morning is that the 49ers are the first NFL team to clinch a playoff spot in 2023. Realistically, Sunday's solid win over the Seahawks essentially clinched the NFC West division title, too. The Los Angeles Rams, with a 4-1 division record, could theoretically win out and finish 10-7, and if the Niners were to collapse, lose the season finale at home to LA, and also finish 10-7, the Rams would win the division. Compute those odds if you've time to waste.

San Francisco also leads the NFL in point differential-- whoops, no they don't. That leader would be Dallas, who became the second straight team to hammer the defending NFC champion Eagles Sunday night. To get that lead, the 'Pokes had to overcome their own minus-32-point differential against the 49ers. Congratulations are in order, if you've time to waste.

Brock Purdy showed off the strong arm and the deep ball Sunday, with an absolutely perfect 54-yard strike to Deebo Samuel, who caught it in stride-- he strides very fast indeed-- and continued on for the touchdown. Purdy added deep downfield completions of 30 and 45 yards to Brandon Aiyuk, and an old-fashioned 44-yard post pattern to George Kittle for the score that made it 28-10 and essentially decided the game. 

The tally: 150 yards for Deebo, 153 for Christian McCaffrey (including a 72-yard burst on the game's first play), and 126 for Aiyuk.  That's 527 total yards, 354 passing, 173 rushing, a 54% third-down efficiency, and you may be wondering, then, why only 28 points? A fair question. Only one turnover (an interception that served as a punt), three sacks, and five punts.  One of those punts was preceded by punter Mitch Wishnowsky's 30-yard run off a beautiful fake, but a chop-block penalty nullified it. And, on defense, four more sacks and two more interceptions, and the tendency to shut the opponent down in the second half after a lethargic start.

So is it that the 49ers are so good that they win going away even when they miss numerous scoring chances against a porous defense?  Was it simply a letdown after the monumental Philadelphia game, meaning they're good enough to win regardless? Or does that failure to capitalize on those opportunities mask a real weakness that also explains the midseason losses which seem so long ago?

The next game, at Arizona, may reveal whether those are legitimate concerns or just needless worry. Classic trap game and all, facing a 3-10 club on their home field, a week before the AFC's best team, Baltimore, comes a-callin'. 

Thursday, December 7, 2023

Week Thirteen

 

49ers 42, Philadelphia 19


“The precision-jackhammer attack of the San Francisco 49ers stomped the balls off the Philadelphia Eagles today by stomping and hammering with one precise jack-thrust after another up the middle, mixed with pinpoint precision passes into the flat and numerous hammer-jack stomps around both ends…”

Just kidding. Even the late Hunter S. Thompson would have had no problem understanding that Sunday's demolition of the Philadelphia Eagles followed a far different script. But the outcome was similar. The 49ers imposed their will on a powerful opponent on its home field, and there was nothing the Eagles could do about it.

Some observations:

Once again we showed our complete ignorance of how football games are won, as the 49ers not only didn't "get off first," they didn't "get off" at all in the first quarter, unless one means "get off the field." For 15 minutes Lincoln Financial Field looked like it might indeed be Brock Purdy's personal kryptonite. He was perfectly healthy this time, but you wouldn't have known it by the stat sheet: zero pass completions, zero first downs, minus-six yards. 

Yet the score at the end of the quarter was only 6-0. Despite Jalen Hurts leading his offense up and down the field, the 49er defense was magnificent in the red zone, and Philly only got two field goals for all that domination. Aware that the rest of the game belonged to the 49er offense, let's stop here and give that defense its due for keeping the game close when it easily could have gotten away.

You will never see a more perfectly-executed play than the one that sent Deebo Samuel on his way to his third touchdown. The replay shows a veritable wall of white jerseys to the left, sweeping back the green suits like a series of bulldozers clearing the rainforest. Deebo angles to the right, and he's got an open field all the way to the end zone. The chalkboard X's and O's came to life right there.  

Kyle Shanahan's lingering reputation for "freezing" in the critical moments of a game took a beating Sunday. He continually surprised a good Philadelphia defense with sudden unexpected formations and plays when it was still a contest in the third quarter.  The play that broke it open--  Samuel's second TD-- had every defender out of position and grasping at jerseys.  Utter futility. And check Deebo's incredible power/speed burst as he saw the open goal just ahead of him. A man that size accelerating that fast? Almost seems unfair, doesn't it?

In this game, Jalen Hurts proved he is the MVP, and not just because Christian McCaffrey and Purdy might split the vote. The only reason the Eagles were even in this game over the last 35 minutes is because of Hurts-- his athleticism, his arm, his downfield vision, his toughness. In a bizarre twist on last year's NFC championship, it was Hurts leaving the field with an injury instead of Purdy. But he came back, and he kept battling to the end. Philadelphia has a good-- we can't say great-- offensive line, but the 49er defense shredded it all day and Hurts had to bail out on almost every single pass play. He held the ball forever since most of the time no one was open downfield, but tenaciously avoided all but three sacks which could have been a dozen. With no running game, except for Hurts' own scrambles, the whole Eagles' offense was he and the fine receiver A.J. Brown. 

We love Brock Purdy, but he is backed by a tremendous defense and game-changing players like Samuel, McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk. Jalen Hurts is the sole difference-maker for the Philadelphia Eagles. With him, they're a Super Bowl contender; without him, they're just another 6-6 team trying to make the playoffs. He's got our MVP vote.

The 49ers can clinch the division this Sunday with a win over the Seattle Seahawks, and they own the tie-breaker with Dallas and Philadelphia, who square off this weekend. After four straight wins, the postseason picture looks a little brighter in Santa Clara.