Believe it. This is exactly what the NFL wants, and what it really means, by "parity." Many have suggested that the ultimate goal of "parity" is for every team to finish 8-8 with all twelve playoff positions decided by tiebreakers. We're here to say that ain't so and never was.
No, this is what's meant by parity. After ten games, with six left to play, we have five powerful teams that have all but sewed up their divisions, six lousy teams that are all but eliminated-- and a whopping twenty-one teams that are left to scramble for seven remaining playoff spots. Yep, this is what it's all about. A few at the top, a few at the bottom, and the great majority right smack in the middle. You need your top dogs for everyone to aim at, you need your bottom-feeders to troll for the top draft choice and/or play spoiler, and you need 70% of your fans believing their team still has a shot right up until January. That's parity, sports fans.
Yep, you've got your perennials, the Patriots, the Broncos, the Packers-- even the Bengals, about to reach the postseason for the fifth straight year, qualify here-- on top. You've got your out-of-nowhere surprises: the Carolina Panthers' unbeaten streak and the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tampa Bay Buccaneers both in contention at Thanksgiving. You've got some recent powerhouses-- Seattle, Dallas, Indianapolis-- going through a rough patch. You've got some teams for whom the ball has seemed to bounce favorably, such as the Vikings and the Cardinals, and a few for whom the bouncing ball always seems to be a fumble recovered by the other team-- the Rams, the Saints, and the Dolphins, for example.
It's clear the Patriots, the Panthers, the Bengals, the Broncos, and the Cardinals are far enough ahead in their divisions that it will take a major collapse for any of them to give up their leads; even if they play .500 ball the rest of the way, they're likely to win. It's also clear that the NFC North will be a two-team battle with the loser a likely wild-card, and that the NFC East and AFC South will each produce one division winner, by default if nothing else, but no wild-card team. And then there are those for whom the bell has already tolled: our 49ers, the Lions, the Ravens, the Chargers, the Titans, and the inevitable Browns. That leaves three wild-card playoff berths for as many as fourteen teams to fight over.
So let's take a division-by-division review of everybody's chances, now that winter is approaching and things are getting serious.
NFC East. The Dallas Cowboys, at 3-7, have no shot at the wild-card, but they're only two games back in his division. And make no mistake about it, the mere presence of Tony Romo at quarterback makes every part of this team better, regardless of what the numbers may say. Now, all of these four teams have a .500 mark in the division and there are five division games left. The Washington Redskins play in four of those, two against Dallas and one each against the Giants and Philly, who also face each other one more time. Right now we give the Giants and the 'Pokes each a 50-50 chance to win it, simply because they are the teams with the best QBs.
NFC North. The Packers dealt the Vikings a setback this week, but Minnesota still has a two-game lead over the wild-card outsiders such as Seattle and Tampa. Both the Vikes and the Pack should make it. The Bears, who've already beaten Minnesota once, remain in the wild-card hunt at 4-6 despite losing to Denver at home when they had a chance to gain ground. Chicago have quietly improved their overall game over the past month.
NFC South. Who'd a thunk it? Tampa, winning four of six, breathing down the necks of Atlanta, who have gone 1-4 since opening the season 5-0. The Bucs already won in Atlanta and they get the Falcons at home in two weeks. Meanwhile the Saints, at 4-6, also have a win over the Falcons and get them again at season's end in Georgia. No one's catching Carolina, but the 'Card' is definitely 'Wild' in this division.
NFC West. The Rams' three straight losses have rendered their 3-0 division mark all but irrelevant; they are 1-6 outside the West. And they still have to face all three again. Seattle doesn't get another crack at Arizona until the season finale in Phoenix, and even if the Cards just go 3-3 over the last six games, the Seahawks have to win six straight just to tie. Not gonna happen, but Seattle as a wild-card team is plenty possible, and that'll still give other teams the jitters.
AFC East. The New England Patriots will win the East easily, tying the all-time record, set by the 1970s LA Rams, with their seventh straight division title. Buffalo and the Jets trail by five; we like the Bills, if they remain healthy, as a wild-card team. Not sure at all about New York after losing four of five, and we were never sure about 4-6 Miami to begin with. Like the NFC South, it's hard to see a wild-card team not coming out of this division.
AFC North. It's likely to be five straight postseasons for the Bengals, and two division titles in three years, but if January yields another one-and-done, will Marvin Lewis get the boot? Superstitious folks will claim that once Cincinnati shows they can win a prime-time game, they will win a playoff game. Well, we already know Pittsburgh can do both, but the Steelers will go exactly as far as Ben Roethlisberger's legs will take them. Hard to tell how far that is, but they have a one-game lead for the wild-card today.
AFC South. The Jacksonville Jaguars are only one game out of first place, and it's almost December! Trouble is, they've already lost to both teams ahead of them, though the games were close. For now, presume the Indianapolis Colts, fallible though they are everywhere else, are still Kryptonite to their division rivals (3-0 so far). The Colts play at Jacksonville in three weeks and get Houston at home in four; if, and only if, they lose both those games, then the division might be up for grabs.
AFC West. Osweiler for the season and Manning for the playoffs? Let's talk instead about the Kansas City Chiefs, winners of four straight, and a wild-card team if the season ended today. They host Buffalo this week, and then close out with five straight against teams with losing records. But two of those are against the Oakland Raiders, who are a game behind with a much tougher schedule (Packers, Broncos) ahead. If the Raiders sweep the Chiefs, maybe we'll be talking about them at season's end.
Well, we got through that without one mention of Colin Kaepernick, Trent Baalke, Jed York, Jim Tomsula, or even Jim Harbaugh. That feels good. Doggone good.
Tomorrow? Panthers' unbeaten streak ends as Romo has a day for the ages. Eagles and Lions finish in overtime, decided by a turnover. Bears battle but Packers win a close one.
Enjoy the games and the food, but seriously, remember it is a day to give thanks to the One who created you. Have fun and remember how blessed you are.
Wednesday, November 25, 2015
Monday, April 6, 2015
Lon Simmons 1923-2015
It was the "Golden West Radio Network" on "KSFO-560, in San Francisco," back in April of 1965, and that's where and when we heard our first major-league baseball radio broadcast. Russ Hodges, the legendary play-by-play man from New York who had come West with the team, the man who called the Bobby Thomson home run, was the lead announcer, but our childlike attention was captured by the rich, easy baritone of the man whose friendly asides and pithy comments punctuated Hodges' genial chatter. Lon Simmons, we understood right away, was a Westerner-- and as new arrivals in that beautiful, unusual land, we were drawn to all things Western and Californian.
Lon was all that. He did the 49er games, too, and the 1965 49ers were one of the most exciting teams ever to play professional football. Lon's voice accompanied us as we cheered John Brodie shredding defenses with deep passes to Dave Parks, and as we stared in disbelief at eleven guys wearing scarlet and gold who couldn't tackle Gale Sayers if their lives depended on it. Perhaps clearest of all, we recall Lon's patient-but-quietly-exasperated tone as he covered the stumbling, bumbling 49ers of the late 1970s, the pre-Walsh days, like a doting but put-upon father shaking his head at the misadventures of his wayward children. It is a great irony that Lon, who carried the flag for so many awful Niner teams over two decades, lost his broadcasting job on the eve of the team's first Super Bowl season-- and not because of anything he did or didn't do, but simply because of a corporate decision to switch radio stations. It is a further irony that just two years earlier Lon had lost his Giants job for the same reason. In both cases it was KNBR-680 taking over for the old standby KSFO, and you youngsters who've grown up with KNBR as your sports station can't possibly remember what a shock to the system it was to hear our teams' games broadcast on a new frequency by a bunch of newcomers.
Of course, Lon's class act was followed by others-- Hank Greenwald with the Giants, Don Heinrich and Don Klein and Joe Starkey with the 49ers-- who were unique and wonderful commentators themselves. What an amazing run of quality voices and personalities we fans had to enjoy as both our teams reached unprecedented heights of achievement in the 1980s!
And of course Lon came back to the 49ers in the turbulent year of 1988-- a season that was a lot like those crazy 1960s campaigns, filled with highs and lows and controversies. And that one, unlike those, had a most happy ending, with Lon's signature football call: "TOUCHDOWN, FORTY-NINERS!" roaring across the airwaves as time ran out in Super Bowl XXIII. He returned to the Giants broadcasts, too, eventually; mostly part-time, as an honored guest alongside Jon Miller, Mike Krukow, and Duane Kuiper, all of whom were clearly thrilled to share the booth with The Voice. He called Opening Day at the inauguration of Pacific Bell Park in 2000, which had to be a personal highlight-- he had already called Opening Day 1958 at Seals Stadium, the Giants' first game in San Francisco, and Opening Day 1960 at brand-new Candlestick Park. And of course for years in between Lon smoothly made the switch to the American League, Oakland, and the A's, working alongside yet another legend, the late Bill King. Yes, truly an amazing run of quality voices and personalities...
"TOUCHDOWN, 49ERS!" That's the one we heard the most and remember the best. But there were others. The cool, reserved humor of Lon's usual delivery could, and did, give way to fevered, almost hysterical excitement when the occasion called for it. It was as though he instinctively knew when to turn up the juice even as we fans were doing the same thing, listening along. Here are a few we remember:
"MARSHALL... THINKS HE HAS SCORED A TOUCHDOWN! HE HAS SCORED A SAFETY!" You can get that one on YouTube. It's from a loss to the Vikings in 1964 with a bizarre highlight provided by Minnesota lineman Jim Marshall.
How about May 28, 1978, at Candlestick, Dodgers in town, Don Sutton on the mound, bases loaded, a full house, pinch-hitter Mike Ivie standing in? At the crack, it's Lon: "HIT DEEP TO LEFT! WAY BACK, WAY BACK, WAY BACK.... A GRAND SLAM!!!"
And of course Steve Young, against the Vikings again, November 30 1988 at the 'Stick, one of NFL Films' most popular highlight videos... "GETS AWAY!... GETS AWAY AGAIN!... TOUCHDOWN, 49ERS!"
Finally, the inevitable home-run call, "TELL IT GOODBYE!"
Goodbye, Lon. We'll miss you.
Saturday, November 29, 2014
A Welcome Diversion
Well, after that particular Thanksgiving turkey, we sure need one. Don't know about you all, but after reading and occasionally responding to endless comments about Colin Kaepernick, his presumed inability to read defenses and his regression from superstar to whipping boy, about Greg Roman, his presumed inability to connect with his quarterback and his job insecurity, about Jim Harbaugh, his presumed inability to get along with anybody and his interest in the University of Michigan coaching position-- yep, we've had enough for awhile. There's another game in ten days or so, and we're more than willing to wait for it.
In the meantime, we're putting in a plug for one of our favorite sites, the good folks over at pro-football-reference.com. (Here we state that no one here is affiliated with or has any sort of financial relationship with that site, its ownership or management, or anything else. We're just fans.) It's a wonderful compendium of all things related to pro football, and if we've had our disagreements with their editorial staff from time to time (since when are the winners of the 1967 AFL and 1968-1969 NFL Championships relegated to runner-up status?), it's a place we regularly visit and support, and we encourage you all to do the same.
One statistic of great interest to us that was not developed at or by anyone at p-f-r, but one that is popularized there, is the "Simple Rating System" or SRS for short. Basically, the SRS combines a team's margin of victory with its strength of schedule to estimate the team's true strength, which may be camouflaged by its won-lost record. One claimed use of the SRS may be as a practical point spread, illustrating the difference between two given teams, though home-field advantage will also play a part.
The methods used to develop the SRS are explained in full on the p-f-r website and will not be repeated here. Essentially each team's cumulative margin-of-victory (MOV) is calculated, then measured against the MOV for all other teams, with a plus-or-minus result obtaining. MOV is a constant; strength-of-schedule (SOS) is a variable that changes every time a MOV comparison is made. The comparison process, therefore, must be repeated for each team-game over the length of the schedule until the product (SRS) itself remains constant. Something like this is going to require an Excel spreadsheet or similar program. For lazy people like us, we just go to the site and review the year-by-year standings to see where SRS diverges from won-lost record.
In our opinion, the stat has limited value as a point-spread comparator. Where it will deliver its highest and best value is in looking at teams over the course of a season or several seasons. For instance, dominant teams, great teams, do tend to win a lot of games by lopsided margins: regular blowout wins are a mark of excellence. By contrast, those "Cardiac" teams that win games by the skin of their teeth week after week are wonderful entertainment for the fans, but those teams do not tend to dominate, especially in the postseason. There are exceptions, of course. But generally, a team with the highest SRS over the course of a full season is, most of the time, the best team in the league.
Whether that team is the best bet to win the Super Bowl-- well, there's where the fun begins.
Certainly there are limitations to this method. For instance, how do we define a blowout? At what point is the MOV superfluous in a blowout? Is a 50-point win really more valuable than a 28-point win? This method says it is; the higher the margin the higher the SRS will be. Is one 30-point win more valuable than two 10-point losses? Few fans, players, or coaches would say it is, but SRS will count it so. And over the course of the season, perhaps such a trend does prove a more valuable indicator of strength than does the won-lost record. The NFL, after all, counts both MOV and SOS in its ultra-complicated playoff tie-breaker schemes.
We're interested in using SRS to see if we can answer questions such as these:
Over time we'll explore each of these questions and share the results with you. It could take months or years, or it could be complete by the end of this season if our beloved-but-struggling Niners don't shape up quick.
In the meantime, we're putting in a plug for one of our favorite sites, the good folks over at pro-football-reference.com. (Here we state that no one here is affiliated with or has any sort of financial relationship with that site, its ownership or management, or anything else. We're just fans.) It's a wonderful compendium of all things related to pro football, and if we've had our disagreements with their editorial staff from time to time (since when are the winners of the 1967 AFL and 1968-1969 NFL Championships relegated to runner-up status?), it's a place we regularly visit and support, and we encourage you all to do the same.
One statistic of great interest to us that was not developed at or by anyone at p-f-r, but one that is popularized there, is the "Simple Rating System" or SRS for short. Basically, the SRS combines a team's margin of victory with its strength of schedule to estimate the team's true strength, which may be camouflaged by its won-lost record. One claimed use of the SRS may be as a practical point spread, illustrating the difference between two given teams, though home-field advantage will also play a part.
The methods used to develop the SRS are explained in full on the p-f-r website and will not be repeated here. Essentially each team's cumulative margin-of-victory (MOV) is calculated, then measured against the MOV for all other teams, with a plus-or-minus result obtaining. MOV is a constant; strength-of-schedule (SOS) is a variable that changes every time a MOV comparison is made. The comparison process, therefore, must be repeated for each team-game over the length of the schedule until the product (SRS) itself remains constant. Something like this is going to require an Excel spreadsheet or similar program. For lazy people like us, we just go to the site and review the year-by-year standings to see where SRS diverges from won-lost record.
In our opinion, the stat has limited value as a point-spread comparator. Where it will deliver its highest and best value is in looking at teams over the course of a season or several seasons. For instance, dominant teams, great teams, do tend to win a lot of games by lopsided margins: regular blowout wins are a mark of excellence. By contrast, those "Cardiac" teams that win games by the skin of their teeth week after week are wonderful entertainment for the fans, but those teams do not tend to dominate, especially in the postseason. There are exceptions, of course. But generally, a team with the highest SRS over the course of a full season is, most of the time, the best team in the league.
Whether that team is the best bet to win the Super Bowl-- well, there's where the fun begins.
Certainly there are limitations to this method. For instance, how do we define a blowout? At what point is the MOV superfluous in a blowout? Is a 50-point win really more valuable than a 28-point win? This method says it is; the higher the margin the higher the SRS will be. Is one 30-point win more valuable than two 10-point losses? Few fans, players, or coaches would say it is, but SRS will count it so. And over the course of the season, perhaps such a trend does prove a more valuable indicator of strength than does the won-lost record. The NFL, after all, counts both MOV and SOS in its ultra-complicated playoff tie-breaker schemes.
We're interested in using SRS to see if we can answer questions such as these:
- Were the teams we remember as the league's best during the regular season, but who tanked in the playoffs-- the 1967 Rams, the 1980 Falcons, the 1995 Chiefs are all examples-- really that good?
- How do the great 49er teams, such as the Walsh/Seifert squad which won 18 consecutive road games from 1988-1990, measure up by this method? Which is the most powerful 49er team of all time according to SRS?
- What's the strongest team ever, measured by SRS? Did that team win a championship? Which teams with modest, or even lousy, SRS numbers won it all?
- Is it possible to quantify a predictable relationship between SRS and W-L record, perhaps over multiple seasons?
Over time we'll explore each of these questions and share the results with you. It could take months or years, or it could be complete by the end of this season if our beloved-but-struggling Niners don't shape up quick.
Monday, November 24, 2014
Prayers for Eric Berry
One of the finest defensive players in the game, a former member of our beloved Tennessee Volunteers, a current member of our favorite AFC team, the Kansas City Chiefs... and now a young man facing a life crisis.
Please join us in praying for Eric Berry, his family, his doctors, and all who will be involved in helping this young man face the uncertain days ahead.
Please join us in praying for Eric Berry, his family, his doctors, and all who will be involved in helping this young man face the uncertain days ahead.
Tuesday, August 12, 2014
Robin Williams
It was about 3 o'clock in the morning in the fall of 1975, at the gas station where I worked on Lombard Street in San Francisco. An old VW came rolling in slowly, and after a moment a young man about my own age stepped out and asked for a dollar's worth of gas "just to get me across the bridge."
Gas was 50c a gallon in those days but it still didn't take long to pump in a buck's worth. As I did, he started telling me about his day-- the places he'd been, the people he'd met, the routine things he'd done-- in the most hilarious, engaging, impressionistic detail. Within a few moments I was chuckling at everything he said, at the way he imitated the voices and mannerisms of various people. I managed to get in a few comebacks but mostly I listened in amazement as he laid out what amounted to a five-minute comic synopsis of the Human Condition.
After a moment he looked at me, shrugged, held his hands palms-up and said, "Sorry, man, I don't have a dollar for the gas. I'm flat broke."
I roared and clapped him on the shoulder: "Don't worry about it," I said. "I've spent ten times that much in clubs and never laughed half as much. You," I said, "oughta be in show business."
Little did I know. We shook hands and went our separate ways, and I never saw him again, until three years later when the TV show "Mork and Mindy" came on-- and I took one look at Mork. "That's HIM! That's-- The Guy!"
He was a true comic genius, and he will be missed. RIP Robin.
Wednesday, January 22, 2014
"We let 'em off the hook!"
Had we been asked to compose an ideal opening script for the 49ers' championship showdown against the Seahawks at Seattle Sunday last, it might have gone something like this:
49ers win the toss;
They elect to defer;
They immediately force a Seattle turnover;
They score the game's first points; and, simultaneously:
Take the crowd out of the game;
Set the tone for the rest of the afternoon; and
Plant a seed of doubt into a confident opponent.
Barely a minute into the game, Aldon Smith indeed took the ball away from Russell Wilson deep in Seattle territory after cornering the scrambling quarterback. Three plays later Phil Dawson kicked a field goal for a 3-0 lead, and while a touchdown would have been preferable, there was little to fret about in a game that was likely to feature a few field goals and perhaps be decided by one.
It was all downhill from there.
Believe it, people: the 49ers had this game in hand, and they gave it away. Sure, we can complain about the officiating all we want, but the truth is the 49ers turned it over three times in the fourth quarter, in a game that ultimately was decided on one play. This wasn't the last Super Bowl, where the Niners came back against all odds and fell just short in the attempt. This one got away, or was taken away, by a team that was just a little bit better when they had to be. Yes, you can lose the turnover battle and still win a conference championship (witness "The Catch"), but you only get to do that about once every 33 years. This time, the mistakes were enough to cost a good team the Super Bowl, and to send another good team there instead.
The Seahawks didn't do anything the 49ers didn't expect them to do. Their entire offense was three big plays. Wilson's second-quarter bomb to Doug Baldwin, which set up a field goal, was their only first-half play of note. Then there was that damnable fourth-and-8 touchdown pass to Jermaine Kearse which finally swung the game their way early in the fourth quarter. The rest of the time they kept hitting the line with Marshawn Lynch, which early on didn't work, but in the second half did, especially his one big run for their first TD. Defensively, Seattle concentrated on stopping Frank Gore, and they were successful. They trusted their secondary to make as many big plays as they gave up, and they did. And they were unable to contain Colin Kaepernick when he ran for 130 yards-- but they gambled it wouldn't cost them the game, and they were right-- just barely right, but right.
That the 49ers controlled the tempo, the pace, and the score throughout the first half, but couldn't finish the job in the second half, is a reality we're now forced to live with throughout the offseason. All year they'd been the best second-half team in football, and they had the lead and the ball to open that second half-- and, though it's taken us until today to grudgingly admit it, it was Seattle who came out and controlled that second half. The game was a dogfight for the final two quarters, but as it wore on we saw the Seattle specialty-- their uncanny knack for making the other team self-destruct-- start to emerge. That it came down to a frantic last-minute drive, similar to that of the Green Bay game; that we had every confidence "Kap" and the boys would pull it off despite needing a touchdown instead of a field goal this time; that only a spectacular end-zone play by Richard Sherman (and we'll refrain form making any further comments about his post-game tirade; our opinions are already scattered across the 'Net like vile confetti) ended that comeback bid-- all this speaks volumes about the depth of character and courage exhibited by our favorite football team, and it's just too bad that we'll have to wait until next season to see the same spirit demonstrated again. All this week we're worn our colors with pride; Jim Harbaugh's team played their heart out in a third consecutive road game against a strong, determined opponent, and came up one play short. Nobody need apologize.
It's time to send our best wishes and prayers for speedy recovery to the great Navorro Bowman, who ought to be voted the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year. Likewise to studly Michael Iupati, who recovered from one serious injury this year only to suffer another Sunday. And we couldn't, and wouldn't, have come this far without the spectacular play of Anquan Boldin, whom we hope will wear the scarlet and gold at least one more season.
Bright moments: "Kap" long-striding past the grasping Seattle secondary on his 58-yard second-quarter gallop; Smith's continuous, unrelenting pressure on Wilson, who looks like nobody if not the new Fran Tarkenton ("I always hated Tarkenton," grumbled the normally mild-mannered Merlin Olsen years ago, and we could see the same frustration in Aldon's late-game demeanor); Anthony Dixon's leap over the line into the end zone on fourth-and-goal, the Niners' high-water mark; Boldin's career-defining touchdown catch amid tight coverage, our only score in the second half; the 49er defense surviving three brutal turnovers by allowing only 6 points instead of 21; the much-hyped Seattle "Twelfth Man" being a total non-factor in the game; Patrick Willis' respectful shoulder-slap of Wilson as the clock wound the final seconds down-- an almost-unseen gesture of sportsmanship on a most chippy afternoon; Jim Harbaugh and Pete Carroll's cordial, almost affectionate midfield postgame meeting.
In the Get It Right Next Time Dept., we hear the Competition Committee will likely change the absurd rule that fumble recoveries are not reviewable. How seven men could miss Bowman holding the football in plain sight is a mystery, but in any case justice was served when Lynch promptly coughed it up on the next play (and several teammates helped by kicking it back out to the 49er 15). And when was the last time "roughing the kicker" was called, anyway? It was fairly common once upon a time; now apparently it's fallen into such disuse that the officials can't recognize it when they see it. Use it or lose it, fellas; we can't say the non-call decided the game, but we can't say it didn't, either.
Super Bowl XLVIII will feature pro football's Ultimate Good Guy, Peyton Manning, for the third time, as he seeks to become the only quarterback ever to lead two teams to a Super Bowl victory. We're with him-- or, more precisely, we're with his team. This game comes down to the Number One offense against the Number One defense, and as we've said before, when that happens the outcome will likely be decided on the other side of the ball-- that is, when Denver's defense meets Seattle's offense. Based on what we saw Sunday, we believe Manning-- with a lot of help from his D-- will hoist his second Lombardi trophy ten days hence, capping a record season with a record victory.
And for those of you who've yet to get over it... the Giants' training camp opens in less than a month.
49ers win the toss;
They elect to defer;
They immediately force a Seattle turnover;
They score the game's first points; and, simultaneously:
Take the crowd out of the game;
Set the tone for the rest of the afternoon; and
Plant a seed of doubt into a confident opponent.
Barely a minute into the game, Aldon Smith indeed took the ball away from Russell Wilson deep in Seattle territory after cornering the scrambling quarterback. Three plays later Phil Dawson kicked a field goal for a 3-0 lead, and while a touchdown would have been preferable, there was little to fret about in a game that was likely to feature a few field goals and perhaps be decided by one.
It was all downhill from there.
Believe it, people: the 49ers had this game in hand, and they gave it away. Sure, we can complain about the officiating all we want, but the truth is the 49ers turned it over three times in the fourth quarter, in a game that ultimately was decided on one play. This wasn't the last Super Bowl, where the Niners came back against all odds and fell just short in the attempt. This one got away, or was taken away, by a team that was just a little bit better when they had to be. Yes, you can lose the turnover battle and still win a conference championship (witness "The Catch"), but you only get to do that about once every 33 years. This time, the mistakes were enough to cost a good team the Super Bowl, and to send another good team there instead.
The Seahawks didn't do anything the 49ers didn't expect them to do. Their entire offense was three big plays. Wilson's second-quarter bomb to Doug Baldwin, which set up a field goal, was their only first-half play of note. Then there was that damnable fourth-and-8 touchdown pass to Jermaine Kearse which finally swung the game their way early in the fourth quarter. The rest of the time they kept hitting the line with Marshawn Lynch, which early on didn't work, but in the second half did, especially his one big run for their first TD. Defensively, Seattle concentrated on stopping Frank Gore, and they were successful. They trusted their secondary to make as many big plays as they gave up, and they did. And they were unable to contain Colin Kaepernick when he ran for 130 yards-- but they gambled it wouldn't cost them the game, and they were right-- just barely right, but right.
That the 49ers controlled the tempo, the pace, and the score throughout the first half, but couldn't finish the job in the second half, is a reality we're now forced to live with throughout the offseason. All year they'd been the best second-half team in football, and they had the lead and the ball to open that second half-- and, though it's taken us until today to grudgingly admit it, it was Seattle who came out and controlled that second half. The game was a dogfight for the final two quarters, but as it wore on we saw the Seattle specialty-- their uncanny knack for making the other team self-destruct-- start to emerge. That it came down to a frantic last-minute drive, similar to that of the Green Bay game; that we had every confidence "Kap" and the boys would pull it off despite needing a touchdown instead of a field goal this time; that only a spectacular end-zone play by Richard Sherman (and we'll refrain form making any further comments about his post-game tirade; our opinions are already scattered across the 'Net like vile confetti) ended that comeback bid-- all this speaks volumes about the depth of character and courage exhibited by our favorite football team, and it's just too bad that we'll have to wait until next season to see the same spirit demonstrated again. All this week we're worn our colors with pride; Jim Harbaugh's team played their heart out in a third consecutive road game against a strong, determined opponent, and came up one play short. Nobody need apologize.
It's time to send our best wishes and prayers for speedy recovery to the great Navorro Bowman, who ought to be voted the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year. Likewise to studly Michael Iupati, who recovered from one serious injury this year only to suffer another Sunday. And we couldn't, and wouldn't, have come this far without the spectacular play of Anquan Boldin, whom we hope will wear the scarlet and gold at least one more season.
Bright moments: "Kap" long-striding past the grasping Seattle secondary on his 58-yard second-quarter gallop; Smith's continuous, unrelenting pressure on Wilson, who looks like nobody if not the new Fran Tarkenton ("I always hated Tarkenton," grumbled the normally mild-mannered Merlin Olsen years ago, and we could see the same frustration in Aldon's late-game demeanor); Anthony Dixon's leap over the line into the end zone on fourth-and-goal, the Niners' high-water mark; Boldin's career-defining touchdown catch amid tight coverage, our only score in the second half; the 49er defense surviving three brutal turnovers by allowing only 6 points instead of 21; the much-hyped Seattle "Twelfth Man" being a total non-factor in the game; Patrick Willis' respectful shoulder-slap of Wilson as the clock wound the final seconds down-- an almost-unseen gesture of sportsmanship on a most chippy afternoon; Jim Harbaugh and Pete Carroll's cordial, almost affectionate midfield postgame meeting.
In the Get It Right Next Time Dept., we hear the Competition Committee will likely change the absurd rule that fumble recoveries are not reviewable. How seven men could miss Bowman holding the football in plain sight is a mystery, but in any case justice was served when Lynch promptly coughed it up on the next play (and several teammates helped by kicking it back out to the 49er 15). And when was the last time "roughing the kicker" was called, anyway? It was fairly common once upon a time; now apparently it's fallen into such disuse that the officials can't recognize it when they see it. Use it or lose it, fellas; we can't say the non-call decided the game, but we can't say it didn't, either.
Super Bowl XLVIII will feature pro football's Ultimate Good Guy, Peyton Manning, for the third time, as he seeks to become the only quarterback ever to lead two teams to a Super Bowl victory. We're with him-- or, more precisely, we're with his team. This game comes down to the Number One offense against the Number One defense, and as we've said before, when that happens the outcome will likely be decided on the other side of the ball-- that is, when Denver's defense meets Seattle's offense. Based on what we saw Sunday, we believe Manning-- with a lot of help from his D-- will hoist his second Lombardi trophy ten days hence, capping a record season with a record victory.
And for those of you who've yet to get over it... the Giants' training camp opens in less than a month.
Sunday, January 19, 2014
Good Things Happen in Threes
So goes the old saying, and both our beloved 49ers and the New England Perennials are hoping it's true. Each team takes the field this Sunday playing in their third straight conference championship game. Each has split the previous two, so this one will be something of a "rubber match" for both. To make it especially difficult, both teams are on the road this time, which up until now has been something of an issue for the Patriots but hasn't affected the 49ers.
Jim Harbaugh has gotten a lot of deserved credit this week for his team's third straight appearance at the Super Bowl's doorstep, and of course the Belichicks have turned the postseason into something like their annual company picnic. New England has won their division ten out of the last eleven years-- five years in a row twice-- which is the best of any team since the 1970 NFL merger. They'll now have played in the AFC title game eight times in the last thirteen years, winning five and losing two so far.
Which got us wondering, how historic is all this? How many teams have played in three straight conference championships, what's the record for consecutive appearances, and how many other teams have dominated their conference over a decade? Pardon us, 'cause we're about to get all historical on yo' ass.
The Oakland Raiders-- John Madden edition-- hold the record for consecutive conference championship game appearances, with five in a row from 1973-1977. They lost four of those games but went all the way in '76. Now, if you add the last three AFL Championship Games to the mix-- back in 1967-1969, when the Super Bowl was a true World Championship-- those legendary Raiders played for the Super Bowl nine times in 11 years from 1967-1977. It's no wonder the outsized, ebullient Madden (who took over in 1969) became "America's Coach" when he retired after 1978; his was the most familiar face we all remembered year after year from some of the most exciting and highest-stakes games in league history.
Nine out of 11 years. Not even Tom Landry's Dallas Cowboys, who played in 10 of the first 13 NFC Championship Games from 1970-1982, can match that. Even the great 49er teams of Bill Walsh and George Seifert, who were in the NFC Championship Game six out of seven years from 1988-1994, didn't sustain it that long. Great as the Patriots have been since 2003, they don't measure up to that standard either.
And some of you wondered where that "Commitment to Excellence" business came from!
Getting back to consecutive appearances, the Raiders hold the record at five. Four teams-- the Landry Cowboys from 1970-1973, Marv Levy's Buffalo Bills from 1990-1993, the Jimmy Johnson Cowboys from 1992-1995, and most recently Andy Reid's Philadelphia Eagles from 2001-2004-- have played in four straight. The Bills, of course, won all four of theirs. Philly lost their first three-- including back-to-back losses at home, the only time that's ever happened-- before finally winning one.
And finally, six other teams, including the 49ers twice, have done three in a row. Don Shula's Dolphins did it from 1971-1973, winning all three. The Los Angeles Rams of the "Ground Chuck" (Knox) era made it in 1974, 1975, and 1976-- and lost each time. The Cowboys in their fading glory lost all three times from 1980-1982 (including, of course, "The Catch." Had to get that in there somehow!). As we noted earlier, the 49ers were in the NFC title game from 1988-1990 (with Joe Montana) and again from 1992-1994 (with Steve Young), interrupted by a one-year hiatus shaped a lot like Joe's elbow. Finally we have the Green Bay Packers of Mike Holmgren, Reggie White, and Brett Favre from 1995-1997 (and they beat the 49ers in the postseason each of those years, though only in the NFC Championship once).
Some pretty good company, wouldn't you say? It doesn't seem to confer a specific winning advantage in the games, though. Coming in on a streak of appearances makes for good copy and all, but as we all know it's utterly meaningless on the field.
Setting aside the trivia, then, we note we've been praising the Patriots unusually frequently of late, which is odd, but the prospect of a New England-San Francisco Super Bowl is, y'gotta admit, pretty enticing. (We trust y'all remember that Monday night game from last year.) We don't think it's going to happen, though. The story everyone else has been beating to death-- Brady v. Manning XV-- may not be the deciding factor. Look to the defenses, neither of which, admittedly, is the best in the league. In a situation like this, we give the edge to the home team.
As for the 49ers and Seahawks-- well, we have no idea. Each team is capable of beating the other, certainly. If you take each team at its best, we believe the 49ers have the better bunch. But the Seahawks' whole game plan is, and has been, to take the opponent out of their best game. And when one team has a good chance to win without playing all that well-- and Seattle definitely fits that bill-- common sense dictates you play the percentages, especially when that team is on their home field in front of the most obnoxious fans in football.
But common sense has his side of the street, and we have ours. We're 49er fans, 49er faithful, approaching fifty years of this madness now, and we say this team will play its best and win one of the most memorable conference championship games ever played.
GO NINERS!
Jim Harbaugh has gotten a lot of deserved credit this week for his team's third straight appearance at the Super Bowl's doorstep, and of course the Belichicks have turned the postseason into something like their annual company picnic. New England has won their division ten out of the last eleven years-- five years in a row twice-- which is the best of any team since the 1970 NFL merger. They'll now have played in the AFC title game eight times in the last thirteen years, winning five and losing two so far.
Which got us wondering, how historic is all this? How many teams have played in three straight conference championships, what's the record for consecutive appearances, and how many other teams have dominated their conference over a decade? Pardon us, 'cause we're about to get all historical on yo' ass.
The Oakland Raiders-- John Madden edition-- hold the record for consecutive conference championship game appearances, with five in a row from 1973-1977. They lost four of those games but went all the way in '76. Now, if you add the last three AFL Championship Games to the mix-- back in 1967-1969, when the Super Bowl was a true World Championship-- those legendary Raiders played for the Super Bowl nine times in 11 years from 1967-1977. It's no wonder the outsized, ebullient Madden (who took over in 1969) became "America's Coach" when he retired after 1978; his was the most familiar face we all remembered year after year from some of the most exciting and highest-stakes games in league history.
Nine out of 11 years. Not even Tom Landry's Dallas Cowboys, who played in 10 of the first 13 NFC Championship Games from 1970-1982, can match that. Even the great 49er teams of Bill Walsh and George Seifert, who were in the NFC Championship Game six out of seven years from 1988-1994, didn't sustain it that long. Great as the Patriots have been since 2003, they don't measure up to that standard either.
And some of you wondered where that "Commitment to Excellence" business came from!
Getting back to consecutive appearances, the Raiders hold the record at five. Four teams-- the Landry Cowboys from 1970-1973, Marv Levy's Buffalo Bills from 1990-1993, the Jimmy Johnson Cowboys from 1992-1995, and most recently Andy Reid's Philadelphia Eagles from 2001-2004-- have played in four straight. The Bills, of course, won all four of theirs. Philly lost their first three-- including back-to-back losses at home, the only time that's ever happened-- before finally winning one.
And finally, six other teams, including the 49ers twice, have done three in a row. Don Shula's Dolphins did it from 1971-1973, winning all three. The Los Angeles Rams of the "Ground Chuck" (Knox) era made it in 1974, 1975, and 1976-- and lost each time. The Cowboys in their fading glory lost all three times from 1980-1982 (including, of course, "The Catch." Had to get that in there somehow!). As we noted earlier, the 49ers were in the NFC title game from 1988-1990 (with Joe Montana) and again from 1992-1994 (with Steve Young), interrupted by a one-year hiatus shaped a lot like Joe's elbow. Finally we have the Green Bay Packers of Mike Holmgren, Reggie White, and Brett Favre from 1995-1997 (and they beat the 49ers in the postseason each of those years, though only in the NFC Championship once).
Some pretty good company, wouldn't you say? It doesn't seem to confer a specific winning advantage in the games, though. Coming in on a streak of appearances makes for good copy and all, but as we all know it's utterly meaningless on the field.
Setting aside the trivia, then, we note we've been praising the Patriots unusually frequently of late, which is odd, but the prospect of a New England-San Francisco Super Bowl is, y'gotta admit, pretty enticing. (We trust y'all remember that Monday night game from last year.) We don't think it's going to happen, though. The story everyone else has been beating to death-- Brady v. Manning XV-- may not be the deciding factor. Look to the defenses, neither of which, admittedly, is the best in the league. In a situation like this, we give the edge to the home team.
As for the 49ers and Seahawks-- well, we have no idea. Each team is capable of beating the other, certainly. If you take each team at its best, we believe the 49ers have the better bunch. But the Seahawks' whole game plan is, and has been, to take the opponent out of their best game. And when one team has a good chance to win without playing all that well-- and Seattle definitely fits that bill-- common sense dictates you play the percentages, especially when that team is on their home field in front of the most obnoxious fans in football.
But common sense has his side of the street, and we have ours. We're 49er fans, 49er faithful, approaching fifty years of this madness now, and we say this team will play its best and win one of the most memorable conference championship games ever played.
GO NINERS!
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