Point to Point

As the two best teams in the NFC head toward an Inevitable Showdown a week from this coming Sunday, the spectre of a third team, like the Ghost of Seasons Past, shadows the fortunes of both.

Either our 49ers or their nemeses, the Seattle Seahawks, will win the NFC West this season. Both have a chance to end up the NFC's top-seeded playoff team. They are tied atop the division with identical 11-3 records. Right now Seattle holds the tie-breaker advantage, thanks to their overtime win at Levi Stadium a month ago. But that advantage is only temporary; it will be lost for good if the 49ers defeat  the Seahawks on Sunday night, December 29-- no matter what else happens. 

The reason for that can be laid at the doorstep of last year's NFC champions, the Los Angeles Rams, who Sunday lost in humiliating fashion and  essentially eliminated themselves from contention, just a week after their best and most important win since January. Whether or not their dominating 28-12 win over Seattle two weeks ago was illusory, it made this division battle between the two top teams as close as it could be. And the Rams get a chance to do the same thing to the 49ers this Saturday night, to play a spoiler role. Following the horrific and inexcusable loss to Atlanta last Sunday, the 49ers really can't afford to lose to the Rams now, can they?

Actually, they can. It would probably cost them the top seed, and it might even cost them the first-round bye, but the Niners absolutely can lose to the Rams this week and still win the division if they beat Seattle in the finale-- even if the Seahawks defeat Arizona this week and take a one-game lead. For that, we can thank the NFL's complex tiebreaking procedures-- and we can thank the Los Angeles Rams.

The division tie-breaking procedures start with head-to-head record, then division record, then conference record, then common opponents, at which point almost all ties have been broken in the past.  Right now the 49ers and Seahawks are dead even in division record (3-1) and conference record (8-2).  Each is 3-1 against the AFC North, with victories over Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh, and a loss to Baltimore. Each is 3-1 against the NFC South; the 49ers lost only to Atlanta (at home) and the Seahawks only to New Orleans (at home). Each beat a different team in the NFC East and NFC North, so those don't count as common opponents. Nor does the 49er-Seattle game last month. So, against common opponents, the 49ers are 9-2 and the Seahawks 8-3. That's meaningless, today, because Seattle won that game over the Niners and holds the head-to-head advantage.

Now follow the bouncing ball. If the Seahawks beat the Cardinals and the 49ers lose to the Rams this weekend, Seattle would then take a one-game lead, 12-3 to 11-4. The Seahawks would have a 4-1 division record and 9-2 conference record to the 49ers' 3-2 and 8-3, and both would then be 9-3 against common opponents.

But one-game lead and head-to-head win notwithstanding, Seattle still would have  to win or tie on Sunday night the 29th to win the division.

If the 49ers, trailing by a game as outlined above, should summon up their best effort and beat their rivals on their home field that night, the teams would be tied even tighter than they are today: both 12-4, even in the head-to-head series, both 4-2 in the division, both 9-3 in the NFC-- and both still 9-3 against common opponents, which would then become extremely meaningful.

That's tied, all right. Tied at five levels.  Tied up tight. Maybe tighter than any division race, ever.

What happens then? The NFL rules say it goes to "strength of victory," and all of a sudden it's no contest. The 49ers have outscored their opposition by 161 points this year, an 11.5-point margin of victory. The Seahawks have barely broken even, outscoring the opposition by a total of 26 points over 14 games, same as the 8-6 Rams.  That's less than two points per game. If we look only at victories, it's almost as lopsided; the 49ers have a 173-point margin in their wins, Seattle is at 62.

Has a NFL division, or any playoff berth, ever been decided by points? We don't know. But if this year's NFC West race ultimately is so decided, it's nice to know our guys will come out on top.