No, this is not a plea for "tolerance" (which misguided folk misrepresent as "acceptance") in the wake of the Kaepernick-plus-untold-numbers-of-other-players National Anthem issue. Our opinion on it is straightforward and simple. First, it's not a "free speech" issue since no one is calling for anyone's arrest. Second, the team we love to hate, the Seattle Seahawks, had it exactly right when they stood and linked arms as a team, emphasizing unity over so-called diversity. Third, no matter whether or not this was the proper time and place for Kap's "protest" (we don't believe it was, but you may disagree), there's no doubt it was, and remains, a "me-first" gesture in a game which values teamwork above all. And finally, the NFL's insistence on rigid uniform policies, which threatens players who honor fallen police officers and 9-11 heroes while allowing disrespect for our flag and those who fought for it, is ridiculous in the present context and likely to cost the league money, attendance, and support. As it should.
Instead, this is a suggestion that while we needn't "curb" our enthusiasm over the 49ers' unexpected demolition of the Los Angeles Rams on Monday night, we may want to "temper" that enthusiasm just a little.
It was only a year ago that the Jim Tomsula 49ers, with Kaepernick under center, walked all over the Minnesota Vikings in similar fashion as the season opened. We all know how that turned out. The Vikings won their division, and the 49ers finished in the cellar of theirs. Then, as now, the 49er quarterback looked poised, confident, and decisive in his play-making. Then, as now, the running game was dominant. Then, as now, the defense roared across the field, looking very much like a "Jim Harbaugh"-style defense.
Those were the Vikings, a good team. These are the Rams, if not exactly a bad team then certainly a team with a bad offense, from the line to the quarterback to the play-calling. Any time you win a game by 28-0 it's a good thing, and any time your QB plays with confidence it's a good thing, and any time your offensive line blasts open holes for the running game it's a good thing, and any time your defense pitches a rare shutout it's a real good thing.
But let's give it four weeks before we get excited. Yes, Chip Kelly and his coaches are capable of pulling off a surprise season, as they did with Philadelphia in 2013. But with back-to-back road games at Carolina and Seattle, followed by home dates with Dallas and the Cardinals, in the immediate future, let's see if the 49ers are still worth getting excited about come October. Keep your fingers crossed.
Wednesday, September 14, 2016
Sunday, February 14, 2016
Wednesday, December 16, 2015
Sittin' on the Dock of the Bay, Wastin' Time
Well, the "bay" is about 2700 miles west of here, but as for the time-wastin' part, we've got you covered there.
With fourteen weeks gone and three to go on the NFL season, here's how we see the entire field, based on Bill Parcells' dictum that the best way to rate a team is by its-- well, by its won-lost record. Forthwith...
1. Panthers 13-0 They've still three weeks to go/To get that 16-0
2. Cardinals 11-2 Expect that they will peak/In season's final week
3. Patriots 11-2 AFC opponents fear/ Road to “50” leads through here
4. Bengals 10-3 The shape of things to come/May hang on Dalton's thumb
5. Broncos 10-3 Tough Raider loss at home/To Boston must they roam?
6. Packers 9-4 Oh yes, they're in the lead/But still not up to speed
7. Steelers 8-5 Beat Bengals big to gain/And three weeks yet remain
8. Chiefs 8-5 Seven straight, you bet/Is wild-card all they'll get?
9. Seahawks 8-5 Wilson's off the charts/And may still break some hearts
10. Vikings 8-5 If they win all 3 games/Then first place will they claim
11. Jets 8-5 To take that playoff ride/Will Bills and Pats decide?
12. Eagles 6-7 Two more division fights/Keep them awake at nights
13. Raiders 6-7 K-Mack's a superstar /And Carr behind ain't far
14. Redskins 6-7 They finally won on road/As Cousins' mettle showed
15. Giants 6-7 The schedule ain't their friend/Face Eagles at the end
16. Bills 6-7 Rex can talk the talk/But they haven't walked the walk
17. Buccaneers6-7 This loss leaves playoff hopes/A-hangin' on the ropes
18. Texans 6-7 Beat Indy in the 'Dome/And bring the bacon home
19. Colts 6-7 Can Luck or Hasselbeck/Keep Houston off their neck?
20. Falcons 6-7 The season's biggest flop/When will the losing stop?
21. Saints 5-8 A chance to win four straight/And finish 8-and-8
22. Jaguars 5-8 That thirty-nine-point run/They topped with fifty-one!
23. Rams 5-8 We all know they can win/When linemen block again
24. Bears 5-8 Can play a spoiler role/And put Vikings in a hole
25. Dolphins 5-8 Bet Campbell won't be here/When tee it up next year
26. Ravens 4-9 The ground has been well-tilled/It's time, John, to rebuild
27. Cowboys 4-9 One chance, it would appear/To wreck the Redskins' year
28. Lions 4-9 Has everyone been dozing?/The window may be closing!
29. 49ers 4-9 A moment of faint hope?/Remember: York's a dope
30. Titans 3-10 Mariota's past reproach/But who will be the coach?
31. Chargers 3-10 Is losing part of plan/To move to La-La-Land?
32. Browns 3-10 Why win? We know it's sick/Let's get that first draft pick!
With fourteen weeks gone and three to go on the NFL season, here's how we see the entire field, based on Bill Parcells' dictum that the best way to rate a team is by its-- well, by its won-lost record. Forthwith...
1. Panthers 13-0 They've still three weeks to go/To get that 16-0
2. Cardinals 11-2 Expect that they will peak/In season's final week
3. Patriots 11-2 AFC opponents fear/ Road to “50” leads through here
4. Bengals 10-3 The shape of things to come/May hang on Dalton's thumb
5. Broncos 10-3 Tough Raider loss at home/To Boston must they roam?
6. Packers 9-4 Oh yes, they're in the lead/But still not up to speed
7. Steelers 8-5 Beat Bengals big to gain/And three weeks yet remain
8. Chiefs 8-5 Seven straight, you bet/Is wild-card all they'll get?
9. Seahawks 8-5 Wilson's off the charts/And may still break some hearts
10. Vikings 8-5 If they win all 3 games/Then first place will they claim
11. Jets 8-5 To take that playoff ride/Will Bills and Pats decide?
12. Eagles 6-7 Two more division fights/Keep them awake at nights
13. Raiders 6-7 K-Mack's a superstar /And Carr behind ain't far
14. Redskins 6-7 They finally won on road/As Cousins' mettle showed
15. Giants 6-7 The schedule ain't their friend/Face Eagles at the end
16. Bills 6-7 Rex can talk the talk/But they haven't walked the walk
17. Buccaneers6-7 This loss leaves playoff hopes/A-hangin' on the ropes
18. Texans 6-7 Beat Indy in the 'Dome/And bring the bacon home
19. Colts 6-7 Can Luck or Hasselbeck/Keep Houston off their neck?
20. Falcons 6-7 The season's biggest flop/When will the losing stop?
21. Saints 5-8 A chance to win four straight/And finish 8-and-8
22. Jaguars 5-8 That thirty-nine-point run/They topped with fifty-one!
23. Rams 5-8 We all know they can win/When linemen block again
24. Bears 5-8 Can play a spoiler role/And put Vikings in a hole
25. Dolphins 5-8 Bet Campbell won't be here/When tee it up next year
26. Ravens 4-9 The ground has been well-tilled/It's time, John, to rebuild
27. Cowboys 4-9 One chance, it would appear/To wreck the Redskins' year
28. Lions 4-9 Has everyone been dozing?/The window may be closing!
29. 49ers 4-9 A moment of faint hope?/Remember: York's a dope
30. Titans 3-10 Mariota's past reproach/But who will be the coach?
31. Chargers 3-10 Is losing part of plan/To move to La-La-Land?
32. Browns 3-10 Why win? We know it's sick/Let's get that first draft pick!
Wednesday, November 25, 2015
Parity or Parody?
Believe it. This is exactly what the NFL wants, and what it really means, by "parity." Many have suggested that the ultimate goal of "parity" is for every team to finish 8-8 with all twelve playoff positions decided by tiebreakers. We're here to say that ain't so and never was.
No, this is what's meant by parity. After ten games, with six left to play, we have five powerful teams that have all but sewed up their divisions, six lousy teams that are all but eliminated-- and a whopping twenty-one teams that are left to scramble for seven remaining playoff spots. Yep, this is what it's all about. A few at the top, a few at the bottom, and the great majority right smack in the middle. You need your top dogs for everyone to aim at, you need your bottom-feeders to troll for the top draft choice and/or play spoiler, and you need 70% of your fans believing their team still has a shot right up until January. That's parity, sports fans.
Yep, you've got your perennials, the Patriots, the Broncos, the Packers-- even the Bengals, about to reach the postseason for the fifth straight year, qualify here-- on top. You've got your out-of-nowhere surprises: the Carolina Panthers' unbeaten streak and the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tampa Bay Buccaneers both in contention at Thanksgiving. You've got some recent powerhouses-- Seattle, Dallas, Indianapolis-- going through a rough patch. You've got some teams for whom the ball has seemed to bounce favorably, such as the Vikings and the Cardinals, and a few for whom the bouncing ball always seems to be a fumble recovered by the other team-- the Rams, the Saints, and the Dolphins, for example.
It's clear the Patriots, the Panthers, the Bengals, the Broncos, and the Cardinals are far enough ahead in their divisions that it will take a major collapse for any of them to give up their leads; even if they play .500 ball the rest of the way, they're likely to win. It's also clear that the NFC North will be a two-team battle with the loser a likely wild-card, and that the NFC East and AFC South will each produce one division winner, by default if nothing else, but no wild-card team. And then there are those for whom the bell has already tolled: our 49ers, the Lions, the Ravens, the Chargers, the Titans, and the inevitable Browns. That leaves three wild-card playoff berths for as many as fourteen teams to fight over.
So let's take a division-by-division review of everybody's chances, now that winter is approaching and things are getting serious.
NFC East. The Dallas Cowboys, at 3-7, have no shot at the wild-card, but they're only two games back in his division. And make no mistake about it, the mere presence of Tony Romo at quarterback makes every part of this team better, regardless of what the numbers may say. Now, all of these four teams have a .500 mark in the division and there are five division games left. The Washington Redskins play in four of those, two against Dallas and one each against the Giants and Philly, who also face each other one more time. Right now we give the Giants and the 'Pokes each a 50-50 chance to win it, simply because they are the teams with the best QBs.
NFC North. The Packers dealt the Vikings a setback this week, but Minnesota still has a two-game lead over the wild-card outsiders such as Seattle and Tampa. Both the Vikes and the Pack should make it. The Bears, who've already beaten Minnesota once, remain in the wild-card hunt at 4-6 despite losing to Denver at home when they had a chance to gain ground. Chicago have quietly improved their overall game over the past month.
NFC South. Who'd a thunk it? Tampa, winning four of six, breathing down the necks of Atlanta, who have gone 1-4 since opening the season 5-0. The Bucs already won in Atlanta and they get the Falcons at home in two weeks. Meanwhile the Saints, at 4-6, also have a win over the Falcons and get them again at season's end in Georgia. No one's catching Carolina, but the 'Card' is definitely 'Wild' in this division.
NFC West. The Rams' three straight losses have rendered their 3-0 division mark all but irrelevant; they are 1-6 outside the West. And they still have to face all three again. Seattle doesn't get another crack at Arizona until the season finale in Phoenix, and even if the Cards just go 3-3 over the last six games, the Seahawks have to win six straight just to tie. Not gonna happen, but Seattle as a wild-card team is plenty possible, and that'll still give other teams the jitters.
AFC East. The New England Patriots will win the East easily, tying the all-time record, set by the 1970s LA Rams, with their seventh straight division title. Buffalo and the Jets trail by five; we like the Bills, if they remain healthy, as a wild-card team. Not sure at all about New York after losing four of five, and we were never sure about 4-6 Miami to begin with. Like the NFC South, it's hard to see a wild-card team not coming out of this division.
AFC North. It's likely to be five straight postseasons for the Bengals, and two division titles in three years, but if January yields another one-and-done, will Marvin Lewis get the boot? Superstitious folks will claim that once Cincinnati shows they can win a prime-time game, they will win a playoff game. Well, we already know Pittsburgh can do both, but the Steelers will go exactly as far as Ben Roethlisberger's legs will take them. Hard to tell how far that is, but they have a one-game lead for the wild-card today.
AFC South. The Jacksonville Jaguars are only one game out of first place, and it's almost December! Trouble is, they've already lost to both teams ahead of them, though the games were close. For now, presume the Indianapolis Colts, fallible though they are everywhere else, are still Kryptonite to their division rivals (3-0 so far). The Colts play at Jacksonville in three weeks and get Houston at home in four; if, and only if, they lose both those games, then the division might be up for grabs.
AFC West. Osweiler for the season and Manning for the playoffs? Let's talk instead about the Kansas City Chiefs, winners of four straight, and a wild-card team if the season ended today. They host Buffalo this week, and then close out with five straight against teams with losing records. But two of those are against the Oakland Raiders, who are a game behind with a much tougher schedule (Packers, Broncos) ahead. If the Raiders sweep the Chiefs, maybe we'll be talking about them at season's end.
Well, we got through that without one mention of Colin Kaepernick, Trent Baalke, Jed York, Jim Tomsula, or even Jim Harbaugh. That feels good. Doggone good.
Tomorrow? Panthers' unbeaten streak ends as Romo has a day for the ages. Eagles and Lions finish in overtime, decided by a turnover. Bears battle but Packers win a close one.
Enjoy the games and the food, but seriously, remember it is a day to give thanks to the One who created you. Have fun and remember how blessed you are.
No, this is what's meant by parity. After ten games, with six left to play, we have five powerful teams that have all but sewed up their divisions, six lousy teams that are all but eliminated-- and a whopping twenty-one teams that are left to scramble for seven remaining playoff spots. Yep, this is what it's all about. A few at the top, a few at the bottom, and the great majority right smack in the middle. You need your top dogs for everyone to aim at, you need your bottom-feeders to troll for the top draft choice and/or play spoiler, and you need 70% of your fans believing their team still has a shot right up until January. That's parity, sports fans.
Yep, you've got your perennials, the Patriots, the Broncos, the Packers-- even the Bengals, about to reach the postseason for the fifth straight year, qualify here-- on top. You've got your out-of-nowhere surprises: the Carolina Panthers' unbeaten streak and the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tampa Bay Buccaneers both in contention at Thanksgiving. You've got some recent powerhouses-- Seattle, Dallas, Indianapolis-- going through a rough patch. You've got some teams for whom the ball has seemed to bounce favorably, such as the Vikings and the Cardinals, and a few for whom the bouncing ball always seems to be a fumble recovered by the other team-- the Rams, the Saints, and the Dolphins, for example.
It's clear the Patriots, the Panthers, the Bengals, the Broncos, and the Cardinals are far enough ahead in their divisions that it will take a major collapse for any of them to give up their leads; even if they play .500 ball the rest of the way, they're likely to win. It's also clear that the NFC North will be a two-team battle with the loser a likely wild-card, and that the NFC East and AFC South will each produce one division winner, by default if nothing else, but no wild-card team. And then there are those for whom the bell has already tolled: our 49ers, the Lions, the Ravens, the Chargers, the Titans, and the inevitable Browns. That leaves three wild-card playoff berths for as many as fourteen teams to fight over.
So let's take a division-by-division review of everybody's chances, now that winter is approaching and things are getting serious.
NFC East. The Dallas Cowboys, at 3-7, have no shot at the wild-card, but they're only two games back in his division. And make no mistake about it, the mere presence of Tony Romo at quarterback makes every part of this team better, regardless of what the numbers may say. Now, all of these four teams have a .500 mark in the division and there are five division games left. The Washington Redskins play in four of those, two against Dallas and one each against the Giants and Philly, who also face each other one more time. Right now we give the Giants and the 'Pokes each a 50-50 chance to win it, simply because they are the teams with the best QBs.
NFC North. The Packers dealt the Vikings a setback this week, but Minnesota still has a two-game lead over the wild-card outsiders such as Seattle and Tampa. Both the Vikes and the Pack should make it. The Bears, who've already beaten Minnesota once, remain in the wild-card hunt at 4-6 despite losing to Denver at home when they had a chance to gain ground. Chicago have quietly improved their overall game over the past month.
NFC South. Who'd a thunk it? Tampa, winning four of six, breathing down the necks of Atlanta, who have gone 1-4 since opening the season 5-0. The Bucs already won in Atlanta and they get the Falcons at home in two weeks. Meanwhile the Saints, at 4-6, also have a win over the Falcons and get them again at season's end in Georgia. No one's catching Carolina, but the 'Card' is definitely 'Wild' in this division.
NFC West. The Rams' three straight losses have rendered their 3-0 division mark all but irrelevant; they are 1-6 outside the West. And they still have to face all three again. Seattle doesn't get another crack at Arizona until the season finale in Phoenix, and even if the Cards just go 3-3 over the last six games, the Seahawks have to win six straight just to tie. Not gonna happen, but Seattle as a wild-card team is plenty possible, and that'll still give other teams the jitters.
AFC East. The New England Patriots will win the East easily, tying the all-time record, set by the 1970s LA Rams, with their seventh straight division title. Buffalo and the Jets trail by five; we like the Bills, if they remain healthy, as a wild-card team. Not sure at all about New York after losing four of five, and we were never sure about 4-6 Miami to begin with. Like the NFC South, it's hard to see a wild-card team not coming out of this division.
AFC North. It's likely to be five straight postseasons for the Bengals, and two division titles in three years, but if January yields another one-and-done, will Marvin Lewis get the boot? Superstitious folks will claim that once Cincinnati shows they can win a prime-time game, they will win a playoff game. Well, we already know Pittsburgh can do both, but the Steelers will go exactly as far as Ben Roethlisberger's legs will take them. Hard to tell how far that is, but they have a one-game lead for the wild-card today.
AFC South. The Jacksonville Jaguars are only one game out of first place, and it's almost December! Trouble is, they've already lost to both teams ahead of them, though the games were close. For now, presume the Indianapolis Colts, fallible though they are everywhere else, are still Kryptonite to their division rivals (3-0 so far). The Colts play at Jacksonville in three weeks and get Houston at home in four; if, and only if, they lose both those games, then the division might be up for grabs.
AFC West. Osweiler for the season and Manning for the playoffs? Let's talk instead about the Kansas City Chiefs, winners of four straight, and a wild-card team if the season ended today. They host Buffalo this week, and then close out with five straight against teams with losing records. But two of those are against the Oakland Raiders, who are a game behind with a much tougher schedule (Packers, Broncos) ahead. If the Raiders sweep the Chiefs, maybe we'll be talking about them at season's end.
Well, we got through that without one mention of Colin Kaepernick, Trent Baalke, Jed York, Jim Tomsula, or even Jim Harbaugh. That feels good. Doggone good.
Tomorrow? Panthers' unbeaten streak ends as Romo has a day for the ages. Eagles and Lions finish in overtime, decided by a turnover. Bears battle but Packers win a close one.
Enjoy the games and the food, but seriously, remember it is a day to give thanks to the One who created you. Have fun and remember how blessed you are.
Monday, April 6, 2015
Lon Simmons 1923-2015
It was the "Golden West Radio Network" on "KSFO-560, in San Francisco," back in April of 1965, and that's where and when we heard our first major-league baseball radio broadcast. Russ Hodges, the legendary play-by-play man from New York who had come West with the team, the man who called the Bobby Thomson home run, was the lead announcer, but our childlike attention was captured by the rich, easy baritone of the man whose friendly asides and pithy comments punctuated Hodges' genial chatter. Lon Simmons, we understood right away, was a Westerner-- and as new arrivals in that beautiful, unusual land, we were drawn to all things Western and Californian.
Lon was all that. He did the 49er games, too, and the 1965 49ers were one of the most exciting teams ever to play professional football. Lon's voice accompanied us as we cheered John Brodie shredding defenses with deep passes to Dave Parks, and as we stared in disbelief at eleven guys wearing scarlet and gold who couldn't tackle Gale Sayers if their lives depended on it. Perhaps clearest of all, we recall Lon's patient-but-quietly-exasperated tone as he covered the stumbling, bumbling 49ers of the late 1970s, the pre-Walsh days, like a doting but put-upon father shaking his head at the misadventures of his wayward children. It is a great irony that Lon, who carried the flag for so many awful Niner teams over two decades, lost his broadcasting job on the eve of the team's first Super Bowl season-- and not because of anything he did or didn't do, but simply because of a corporate decision to switch radio stations. It is a further irony that just two years earlier Lon had lost his Giants job for the same reason. In both cases it was KNBR-680 taking over for the old standby KSFO, and you youngsters who've grown up with KNBR as your sports station can't possibly remember what a shock to the system it was to hear our teams' games broadcast on a new frequency by a bunch of newcomers.
Of course, Lon's class act was followed by others-- Hank Greenwald with the Giants, Don Heinrich and Don Klein and Joe Starkey with the 49ers-- who were unique and wonderful commentators themselves. What an amazing run of quality voices and personalities we fans had to enjoy as both our teams reached unprecedented heights of achievement in the 1980s!
And of course Lon came back to the 49ers in the turbulent year of 1988-- a season that was a lot like those crazy 1960s campaigns, filled with highs and lows and controversies. And that one, unlike those, had a most happy ending, with Lon's signature football call: "TOUCHDOWN, FORTY-NINERS!" roaring across the airwaves as time ran out in Super Bowl XXIII. He returned to the Giants broadcasts, too, eventually; mostly part-time, as an honored guest alongside Jon Miller, Mike Krukow, and Duane Kuiper, all of whom were clearly thrilled to share the booth with The Voice. He called Opening Day at the inauguration of Pacific Bell Park in 2000, which had to be a personal highlight-- he had already called Opening Day 1958 at Seals Stadium, the Giants' first game in San Francisco, and Opening Day 1960 at brand-new Candlestick Park. And of course for years in between Lon smoothly made the switch to the American League, Oakland, and the A's, working alongside yet another legend, the late Bill King. Yes, truly an amazing run of quality voices and personalities...
"TOUCHDOWN, 49ERS!" That's the one we heard the most and remember the best. But there were others. The cool, reserved humor of Lon's usual delivery could, and did, give way to fevered, almost hysterical excitement when the occasion called for it. It was as though he instinctively knew when to turn up the juice even as we fans were doing the same thing, listening along. Here are a few we remember:
"MARSHALL... THINKS HE HAS SCORED A TOUCHDOWN! HE HAS SCORED A SAFETY!" You can get that one on YouTube. It's from a loss to the Vikings in 1964 with a bizarre highlight provided by Minnesota lineman Jim Marshall.
How about May 28, 1978, at Candlestick, Dodgers in town, Don Sutton on the mound, bases loaded, a full house, pinch-hitter Mike Ivie standing in? At the crack, it's Lon: "HIT DEEP TO LEFT! WAY BACK, WAY BACK, WAY BACK.... A GRAND SLAM!!!"
And of course Steve Young, against the Vikings again, November 30 1988 at the 'Stick, one of NFL Films' most popular highlight videos... "GETS AWAY!... GETS AWAY AGAIN!... TOUCHDOWN, 49ERS!"
Finally, the inevitable home-run call, "TELL IT GOODBYE!"
Goodbye, Lon. We'll miss you.
Saturday, November 29, 2014
A Welcome Diversion
Well, after that particular Thanksgiving turkey, we sure need one. Don't know about you all, but after reading and occasionally responding to endless comments about Colin Kaepernick, his presumed inability to read defenses and his regression from superstar to whipping boy, about Greg Roman, his presumed inability to connect with his quarterback and his job insecurity, about Jim Harbaugh, his presumed inability to get along with anybody and his interest in the University of Michigan coaching position-- yep, we've had enough for awhile. There's another game in ten days or so, and we're more than willing to wait for it.
In the meantime, we're putting in a plug for one of our favorite sites, the good folks over at pro-football-reference.com. (Here we state that no one here is affiliated with or has any sort of financial relationship with that site, its ownership or management, or anything else. We're just fans.) It's a wonderful compendium of all things related to pro football, and if we've had our disagreements with their editorial staff from time to time (since when are the winners of the 1967 AFL and 1968-1969 NFL Championships relegated to runner-up status?), it's a place we regularly visit and support, and we encourage you all to do the same.
One statistic of great interest to us that was not developed at or by anyone at p-f-r, but one that is popularized there, is the "Simple Rating System" or SRS for short. Basically, the SRS combines a team's margin of victory with its strength of schedule to estimate the team's true strength, which may be camouflaged by its won-lost record. One claimed use of the SRS may be as a practical point spread, illustrating the difference between two given teams, though home-field advantage will also play a part.
The methods used to develop the SRS are explained in full on the p-f-r website and will not be repeated here. Essentially each team's cumulative margin-of-victory (MOV) is calculated, then measured against the MOV for all other teams, with a plus-or-minus result obtaining. MOV is a constant; strength-of-schedule (SOS) is a variable that changes every time a MOV comparison is made. The comparison process, therefore, must be repeated for each team-game over the length of the schedule until the product (SRS) itself remains constant. Something like this is going to require an Excel spreadsheet or similar program. For lazy people like us, we just go to the site and review the year-by-year standings to see where SRS diverges from won-lost record.
In our opinion, the stat has limited value as a point-spread comparator. Where it will deliver its highest and best value is in looking at teams over the course of a season or several seasons. For instance, dominant teams, great teams, do tend to win a lot of games by lopsided margins: regular blowout wins are a mark of excellence. By contrast, those "Cardiac" teams that win games by the skin of their teeth week after week are wonderful entertainment for the fans, but those teams do not tend to dominate, especially in the postseason. There are exceptions, of course. But generally, a team with the highest SRS over the course of a full season is, most of the time, the best team in the league.
Whether that team is the best bet to win the Super Bowl-- well, there's where the fun begins.
Certainly there are limitations to this method. For instance, how do we define a blowout? At what point is the MOV superfluous in a blowout? Is a 50-point win really more valuable than a 28-point win? This method says it is; the higher the margin the higher the SRS will be. Is one 30-point win more valuable than two 10-point losses? Few fans, players, or coaches would say it is, but SRS will count it so. And over the course of the season, perhaps such a trend does prove a more valuable indicator of strength than does the won-lost record. The NFL, after all, counts both MOV and SOS in its ultra-complicated playoff tie-breaker schemes.
We're interested in using SRS to see if we can answer questions such as these:
Over time we'll explore each of these questions and share the results with you. It could take months or years, or it could be complete by the end of this season if our beloved-but-struggling Niners don't shape up quick.
In the meantime, we're putting in a plug for one of our favorite sites, the good folks over at pro-football-reference.com. (Here we state that no one here is affiliated with or has any sort of financial relationship with that site, its ownership or management, or anything else. We're just fans.) It's a wonderful compendium of all things related to pro football, and if we've had our disagreements with their editorial staff from time to time (since when are the winners of the 1967 AFL and 1968-1969 NFL Championships relegated to runner-up status?), it's a place we regularly visit and support, and we encourage you all to do the same.
One statistic of great interest to us that was not developed at or by anyone at p-f-r, but one that is popularized there, is the "Simple Rating System" or SRS for short. Basically, the SRS combines a team's margin of victory with its strength of schedule to estimate the team's true strength, which may be camouflaged by its won-lost record. One claimed use of the SRS may be as a practical point spread, illustrating the difference between two given teams, though home-field advantage will also play a part.
The methods used to develop the SRS are explained in full on the p-f-r website and will not be repeated here. Essentially each team's cumulative margin-of-victory (MOV) is calculated, then measured against the MOV for all other teams, with a plus-or-minus result obtaining. MOV is a constant; strength-of-schedule (SOS) is a variable that changes every time a MOV comparison is made. The comparison process, therefore, must be repeated for each team-game over the length of the schedule until the product (SRS) itself remains constant. Something like this is going to require an Excel spreadsheet or similar program. For lazy people like us, we just go to the site and review the year-by-year standings to see where SRS diverges from won-lost record.
In our opinion, the stat has limited value as a point-spread comparator. Where it will deliver its highest and best value is in looking at teams over the course of a season or several seasons. For instance, dominant teams, great teams, do tend to win a lot of games by lopsided margins: regular blowout wins are a mark of excellence. By contrast, those "Cardiac" teams that win games by the skin of their teeth week after week are wonderful entertainment for the fans, but those teams do not tend to dominate, especially in the postseason. There are exceptions, of course. But generally, a team with the highest SRS over the course of a full season is, most of the time, the best team in the league.
Whether that team is the best bet to win the Super Bowl-- well, there's where the fun begins.
Certainly there are limitations to this method. For instance, how do we define a blowout? At what point is the MOV superfluous in a blowout? Is a 50-point win really more valuable than a 28-point win? This method says it is; the higher the margin the higher the SRS will be. Is one 30-point win more valuable than two 10-point losses? Few fans, players, or coaches would say it is, but SRS will count it so. And over the course of the season, perhaps such a trend does prove a more valuable indicator of strength than does the won-lost record. The NFL, after all, counts both MOV and SOS in its ultra-complicated playoff tie-breaker schemes.
We're interested in using SRS to see if we can answer questions such as these:
- Were the teams we remember as the league's best during the regular season, but who tanked in the playoffs-- the 1967 Rams, the 1980 Falcons, the 1995 Chiefs are all examples-- really that good?
- How do the great 49er teams, such as the Walsh/Seifert squad which won 18 consecutive road games from 1988-1990, measure up by this method? Which is the most powerful 49er team of all time according to SRS?
- What's the strongest team ever, measured by SRS? Did that team win a championship? Which teams with modest, or even lousy, SRS numbers won it all?
- Is it possible to quantify a predictable relationship between SRS and W-L record, perhaps over multiple seasons?
Over time we'll explore each of these questions and share the results with you. It could take months or years, or it could be complete by the end of this season if our beloved-but-struggling Niners don't shape up quick.
Monday, November 24, 2014
Prayers for Eric Berry
One of the finest defensive players in the game, a former member of our beloved Tennessee Volunteers, a current member of our favorite AFC team, the Kansas City Chiefs... and now a young man facing a life crisis.
Please join us in praying for Eric Berry, his family, his doctors, and all who will be involved in helping this young man face the uncertain days ahead.
Please join us in praying for Eric Berry, his family, his doctors, and all who will be involved in helping this young man face the uncertain days ahead.
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